Liberal leader Justin Trudeau and wife Sophie Gregoire Trudeau wave as they go on stage at Liberal election headquarters in Montreal, Monday, Oct. 21, 2019. (Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press)

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau and wife Sophie Gregoire Trudeau wave as they go on stage at Liberal election headquarters in Montreal, Monday, Oct. 21, 2019. (Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press)

Analysis: B.C. shone bright for major parties in 2019 federal election

A post-mortem following the Black Press Media series on B.C.’s role in the Oct. 21 vote

By Bruce Cameron

Handwringing over the federal election outcome began in earnest before the votes were fully counted on the West Coast.

Commentators from Central Canada reminded viewers of the serious regional divides exposed by the results, with the Bloc Quebecois gaining ground and the governing Liberals being shutting out across Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Yet in more than seven hours of live coverage, the most glaring omission was how little was said about B.C., which was a relative bright spot: multi-party federalism is alive and well in this province.

Conservatives “ran the table” in the Prairies, but in B.C., all four major national parties claimed victories.

The Conservatives increased their seat count to 17. The Liberals did enough to retain government, as this series predicted, capturing 11 ridings. Even the NDP, thought to be on the verge of a national collapse when the campaign began, captured 11 seats on the West Coast. And although the Greens again failed to break through as they were hoping, they won two seats on Vancouver Island.

Unlike Liberal cabinet ministers defeated elsewhere in Western Canada, several prominent Liberals won in B.C. Minister of Public Services Carla Qualtrough won in Delta; Fisheries and Oceans Minster Jonathan Wilkinson won in North Vancouver; and Defense Minister Harjit Sajjan won in Vancouver South.

B.C. is likely to play a prominent role in the minority government, but some tensions will remain.

Independent candidate Jody Wilson-Raybould won her seat in Vancouver Granville, ensuring that the damaging SNC-Lavalin affair will not fade away quietly.

And one of the most sensitive dividing lines in Canada – whether to build or block oil pipelines to the coast – is well reflected in the final vote: Liberal Terry Beech, who broke ranks with the PM over the Trans Mountain pipeline, won his seat in Burnaby North–Seymour, while pipeline opponents for the Greens and NDP won in coastal communities.

According to recent polling data, just over half of British Columbians support building the Trans Mountain expansion, particularly those living in suburban and interior ridings represented by a mix of Liberals and Conservatives.

But on the coast, the electoral map is green and orange.

‘Issue-by-issue parliament’: Liberals need to placate NDP to be effective, expert says

Keeping the Liberal minority government viable may be tricky because of the pipeline issue, but the real impediment keeping the Greens and NDP from defeating the minority is a lack of funds and energy to run another campaign so soon after this one.

If the Conservatives ever hope to win government again, they will need to re-evaluate their opposition to climate change actions to appeal to more urban voters.

A case in point is the Lower Mainland, where Liberal policies will have a decidedly B.C. focus, from investments in regional transit infrastructure, to implementing a carbon tax, and balancing resource extraction and reduction of emissions.

While B.C. is definitely a bright spot in an otherwise challenging electoral outcome, the scope of the challenges ahead should not be underestimated. The “sunny ways” Trudeau talked about back in 2015 have definitely become cloudier.

ELECTION 2019: Here are the results from our 12 B.C. races to watch

With such a mixed result nationally, it is not surprising that there will be a reckoning for all parties.

The Conservatives must re-consider some strategic decisions they made in the 2019 campaign. Their American-style attack ads fell short of the mark, and despite leader Andrew Scheer’s defiant tone on election night, questions about whether he can ever defeat Trudeau will grow louder in the months ahead, especially if Trudeau regains some of the momentum he lost this year.

The NDP and Greens also have some reckoning to do. Elizabeth May has led the Greens for 13 year now, and rumours of a leadership change before the next election are growing. Although Jagmeet Singh celebrated on Oct. 21 as if his party had won Official Opposition status, the much-anticipated “Singh surge” was more of a ripple, sufficient to retain some seats, but not enough to boost his leadership position.

And Trudeau will have the tallest order of all. Having retained power despite self-inflicted wounds, he will need to deftly manage the many regional tensions this outcome exposes. That includes rising separatist sentiment in Quebec and Alberta, disappointment among Indigenous communities over insufficient action, and a battle over simultaneously increasing energy exports while decreasing carbon emissions.

Perhaps the most enduring image was the unprecedented scene of all three major party leaders speaking over each other in their televised post-result speeches, rather than waiting for each to speak in turn, as is customary.

KEEP READING: Election results means more tax for foreign buyers, little change on mortgages

The speeches, bombarding the audience as in during a food fight in a cafeteria, signalled that our political leaders failed to absorb a critical message from voters: Canada needs less empty campaign rhetoric and more humility to overcome the challenges we face as a nation.

Bruce Cameron, Black Press Media’s polling analyst, is the founder of Return On Insight. Follow him on Twitter @roitweets

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

Just Posted

Victoria police officers used less-lethal weapons to arrest a woman Sunday night after she allegedly attacked a man with a hammer. (Black Press Media file photo)
Victoria police use less-lethal weapons on woman following hammer attack

Greater Victoria Emergency Response Team called to barricade situation

(Black Press Media file photo)
COVID-19 exposure closes Oak Bay pub, restaurant

Penny Farthing, Vis-a-Vis expected to reopen Wednesday after deep clean

A temporary urgent and primary care centre will open in Esquimalt this week, offering residents more health care options in their own community. (Black Press Media file)
Esquimalt’s temporary urgent and primary care centre to open Monday

The Esquimalt Health Unit will house the temporary site, permanent location opening in December

Victoria police are looking for Delmer Esau who was last seen in Esquimalt June 1. (Photo courtesy of VicPD)
MISSING: Search continues for man last seen in Esquimalt

Delmer Esau, 35, hasn’t been seen since June 1

Thriving Toots Wilderness School is trying to buy a 98-acre plot of undeveloped land from the Boys and Girls’ Club of Greater Victoria in Metchosin. (Contributed/Thriving Roots)
Hopeful buyers of Boys and Girls’ Club land in Metchosin would keep it wild

Nature-based school, partners trying to secure financing to buy 98-acre property: school director

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau participates in a plenary session at the G7 Summit in Carbis Bay, England on Friday June 11, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
Canada donating 13M surplus COVID-19 vaccine doses to poor countries

Trudeau says the government will pay for 87 million shots to be distributed to poor countries

Citizenship Minister Marco Mendicino holds a press conference in Ottawa on Thursday, Nov. 12, 2020. The federal government is announcing that Indigenous people can now apply to reclaim their names on passports and other government documents. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick
Indigenous people can now reclaim traditional names on their passports and other ID

Announcement applies to all individuals of First Nations, Inuit and Métis background

Harvesting hay in the Fraser Valley. (Tom Fletcher/Black Press)
COVID-19: B.C. waives farm income requirement for a second year

Property owners don’t need minimum income for 2022 taxes

Cruise ship passengers arrive at Juneau, Alaska in 2018. Cruise lines have begun booking passengers for trips from Seattle to Alaska as early as this July, bypassing B.C. ports that are not allowed to have visitors until March 2022 under a Canadian COVID-19 restrictions. (Michael Penn/Juneau Empire)
B.C. doesn’t depend on U.S. law to attract cruise ships, Horgan says

Provinces to get update next week on Canada’s border closure

This undated photo provided by Girl Scouts of New Mexico Trails shows a scout donating cookies to firefighters in Rio Rancho, New Mexico, as part of the Hometown Heroes program. As the coronavirus pandemic wore into the spring selling season, many Girl Scout troops nixed their traditional cookie booths for safety reasons. That resulted in millions of boxes of unsold cookies. (Girl Scouts of New Mexico Trails via AP)
Thinner Mints: Girl Scouts have millions of unsold cookies

Since majority of cookies are sold in-person, pandemic made the shortfall expected

In this artist’s sketch, Nathaniel Veltman makes a video court appearance in London, Ont., on June 10, 2021 as Justice of the Peace Robert Seneshen (top left) and lawyer Alayna Jay look on. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Alexandra Newbould
Terror charges laid against London attack suspect

Crown says Nathaniel Veltman’s four counts of first-degree murder constitute an act of terrorism

Premier John Horgan speaks as provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry, right, and health minister Adrian Dix look on during a press conference to update on the province's fall pandemic preparedness plan during a press conference from the press theatre at Legislature in Victoria, Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito
B.C. officials to provide details on Step 2 of COVID reopening plan Monday

Step 2 could allow for larger gatherings and a resumption of recreational travel

Indigenous Services Minister Marc Miller is seen during a news conference, Wednesday May 19, 2021 in Ottawa. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
Indigenous child-welfare battle heads to court despite calls for Ottawa to drop cases

Feds are poised to argue against two Canadian Human Rights Tribunal rulings

The Great Ogopogo Bathtub Race has been held in Summerland as a fundraising event. Do you know which Canadian city introduced this sport? (Black Press file photo)
QUIZ: A summer’s day at the water

How much do you know about boats, lakes and water?

Most Read