Gilnetters on the Fraser River off Surrey toss freshly caught sockeye salmon onto ice during the summer of 2010

Gilnetters on the Fraser River off Surrey toss freshly caught sockeye salmon onto ice during the summer of 2010

Massive sockeye salmon run forecast for Fraser River

B.C. fishermen buzzing over projection of up to 72 million salmon expected to return

Another huge sockeye salmon run is forecast to return to the Fraser River this summer, potentially even bigger than the modern record of 30 million that unexpectedly came back in 2010.

The fish that are now on their homeward migration back to B.C. waters are the spawn of that massive run four years ago, which was the best in a century.

Pre-season estimates of this summer’s run size from the Department of Fisheries and Oceans range from a low of 7.3 million to a high of 72.5 million, with the more probable mid-range forecast set at 23 million.

Until the salmon begin appearing off Vancouver Island, however, there’s little way to know with certainty what proportion of fry that went out to sea survived and thrived in the marine environment.

Much depends on ocean conditions, such as water temperature and the amount of food and predators they encountered.

It’s been theorized that iron-rich ash from the eruption of an Alaskan volcano in 2008 caused a plankton bloom that increased the food supply, contributing to the 2010 sockeye run.

No volcano fertilized the North Pacific waters since then, but salmon watchers are waiting to see if a rogue geoengineering project had any similar effect.

A Haida-led team controversially dumped 200 tonnes of iron dust in the ocean in 2011 with the aim of trapping atmospheric carbon and boosting salmon returns. A 10,000-square-kilometre plankton bloom was later detected by satellites.

Commercial harvesters, sport fishing operators and aboriginal fishermen, meanwhile, are all buzzing with anticipation over the potential run.

But processors caution a huge record run could overwhelm fish packing plants that were pressed to their limit in 2010.

“It was a large challenge and I’m not sure we could have handled very much more fish,” recalled Rob Morley, vice-president of production and corporate development at Canadian Fishing Co. (Canfisco).

He noted the range of 2014 estimates is broad and salmon forecasting is notoriously inexact.

But Morley said other signs coming in point to a very good year for sockeye all along the coast, including runs to Barkley Sound and the Skeena River.

“We’ve seen very good returns of three-year-old fish this past summer,” he said, referring to sockeye that come back a year early and are called immature jacks.

Strong coho returns also suggest good ocean survival for sockeye.

Morley said processors hope a strong run can be verified soon enough for fishery managers to approve early and steady openings, rather than a later, more compressed window.

“If we are, in fact, seeing a lot of fish and get started sooner, it will help everybody handle more fish.”

Sto:lo Tribal Council fisheries advisor Ernie Crey warned against allowing intensive commercial fishing too soon this summer without solid justification.

“Everyone’s getting excited,” he said. “It’s great the forecast is looking that good. But we can’t forget that we’ve had three inquiries into failures of Fraser sockeye salmon runs. Things can go terribly wrong and people can be very disappointed.”

If errors are made and managers decide mid-season they’ve allowed too much fishing, Crey said, the only place to compensate and ensure enough salmon spawn is to then curtail the aboriginal catch upriver.

“It’s hard to be definitive about salmon. We only know enough to know that we don’t know enough.”

Some commercial sockeye fishing was allowed last year, when about four million salmon returned to the Fraser, after a shutdown in 2012.

DFO officials say Fraser sockeye appear to be gradually rebuilding since the disastrous 2009 run when just 1.6 million sockeye returned, triggering the Cohen Inquiry.

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

A decade into the 100-year blueprint for restoring the Bowker Creek watershed, Soren Henrich, director of the Friends of Bowker Creek Society, feels positive about the future of conservation and daylighting of the creek. (Nina Grossman/News Staff)
Ten years in, Greater Victoria’s 100-year Bowker Creek blueprint gets a boost

Victoria council passes several restoration recommendations

During a press event on March 6, Const. Alex Berube, media relations officer for the West Shore RCMP, addressed a deadly shooting that occurred in Metchosin the night before. (Devon Bidal/News Staff)
UPDATED: One man shot dead in ‘targeted incident’ on Sooke Road

Highway 14 reopens following multi-hour closure for investigation

Victoria man Brett Andersen is asking for people’s help to secure him one of eight free tickets to the moon. (Screenshot/@brettandersen Instagram)
Victoria man wants your help securing a free ticket to the moon

Japanese billionaire offering eight people a trip to the moon

A resurfacing of the tennis court in Metchosin is being eyed for the community. However, funding opportunities still need to be solidified for the project. (Michelle Cabana/Black Press Media)
Renewed surface eyed for Metchosin tennis court

Funding source must first be solidified in order for project to happen

The James C Richardson Pipe Band marches in a Remembrance Day parade on Nov. 11, 2019 in Chilliwack. Wednesday, March 10 is International Bagpipe Day. (Jenna Hauck/ Chilliwack Progress file)
Unofficial holidays: Here’s what people are celebrating for the week of March 7 to 13

International Bagpipe Day, Wash Your Nose Day and Kidney Day are all coming up this week

The Conservation Officers Service is warning aquarium users after invasive and potentially destructive mussels were found in moss balls from a pet store. (BC Conservation Officers Service/Facebook)
Aquarium users in B.C. warned after invasive mussels found at pet store

Conservation officers were told the mussels after found in a moss ball from a Terrace pet store.

Hockey hall-of-fame legend Wayne Gretzky, right, watches the casket of his father, Walter Gretzky, as it is carried from the church during a funeral service in Brantford, Ont., Saturday, March 6, 2021. HE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette
Walter Gretzky remembered as a man with a ‘heart of gold’ at funeral

The famous hockey father died Thursday at age 82 after battling Parkinson’s disease

Donald Alan Sweet was once an all star CFL kicker who played for the Montreal Alouettes and Montreal Concordes over a 13-year career. Photo courtesy of Mission RCMP.
Retired B.C. teacher and star CFL kicker charged for assault, sexual crimes against former students

Donald Sweet taught in Mission School District for 10 years, investigators seek further witnesses

(Black Press Media files)
Medicine gardens help Victoria’s Indigenous kids in care stay culturally connected

Traditional plants brought to the homes of Indigenous kids amid the COVID-19 pandemic

Personal protective equipment is seen in the COVID-19 intensive care unit at St. Paul’s hospital in downtown Vancouver. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward
$16.9 million invested to improve worker safety, strengthen B.C.’s food supply chain

Money to be used for social distancing, personal protective equipment, cleaning, and air circulation

More than ever before, as pandemic conditions persist, the threat of data breaches and cyberattacks continues to grow, according to SFU professor Michael Parent. (Pixabay photo)
SFU expert unveils 5 ways the COVID-19 pandemic has forever changed cybersecurity

Recognizing these changes is the first in a series of steps to mitigate them once the pandemic ends, and before the next: Michael Parent

Kevin Haughton is the founder/technologist of Courtenay-based Clearflo Solutions. Scott Stanfield photo
Islander aims Clearflo clean drinking water system at Canada’s remote communities

Entrepreneur $300,000 mobile system can produce 50,000 litres of water in a day, via solar energy

Malawian police guard AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines after the shipment arrived in Lilongwe, Malawi, Friday March 5, 2021. Canada is expecting its first shipments of AstraZeneca vaccine next week. (Associated Press/Thoko Chikondi)
B.C.’s daily COVID-19 cases climb to 634 Friday, four more deaths

Currently 255 people in hospital, 66 in intensive care

Most Read