Tony Leah, GM worker and member of Green Jobs Oshawa Coalition speaks to activists and media outside the General Motors plant in Oshawa, Ont., on the final of production on December 18, 2019. The last vehicles of an era rolled out of GM Canada’s Oshawa assembly plant last week, but workers and the union behind them hope it’s not the end of the line. “We shouldn’t let go of the manufacturing capacity we have there,” said Tony Leah, who worked at the plant for 39 years before having to retire in early December. He’s part of a campaign advocating for government to take over the plant and produce electric vehicles. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Aaron Vincent Elkaim

Tony Leah, GM worker and member of Green Jobs Oshawa Coalition speaks to activists and media outside the General Motors plant in Oshawa, Ont., on the final of production on December 18, 2019. The last vehicles of an era rolled out of GM Canada’s Oshawa assembly plant last week, but workers and the union behind them hope it’s not the end of the line. “We shouldn’t let go of the manufacturing capacity we have there,” said Tony Leah, who worked at the plant for 39 years before having to retire in early December. He’s part of a campaign advocating for government to take over the plant and produce electric vehicles. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Aaron Vincent Elkaim

The unclear path forward for Canada’s auto sector as the electric age approaches

Estimates say automakers globally will be spending US$255 billion to roll out 207 electric models by 2022

The last vehicles of an era rolled out of GM Canada’s Oshawa assembly plant last week, but workers and the union behind them hope it’s not the end of the line.

“We shouldn’t let go of the manufacturing capacity we have there,” said Tony Leah, who worked at the plant for 39 years before having to retire in early December. He’s part of a campaign advocating for government to take over the plant and produce electric vehicles.

The end of production at the plant, which assembled vehicles such as the GMC Silverado and Chevy Impala in the final years of its 66-year run, comes at a time of change and uncertainty in the auto industry as it grapples with slowing sales, trade disputes and the steep costs of transitioning production to electric and autonomous vehicles.

Analysts say that in this environment, there’s no clear path ahead for the Oshawa facility or Canada’s auto sector more generally, and it will have to be prepared to fight for the next generation of product commitments needed to sustain itself.

“It’s a very difficult task that Canada has,” said Joe McCabe, president of AutoForecast Solutions.

“But if they focus on the next evolution of the industry, which is this electrification and autonomy, I think that’s a stronger, long-term sustainable play for the Canadian space.”

McCabe sees conventional auto production in Canada as stable at best going forward, if not declining. The sector has already seen cutbacks in the past year at Ford’s Oakville, Ont., plant, Fiat Chrysler’s Windsor, Ont., plant, and of course GM’s Oshawa assembly plant.

He said the best bet for a major investment could be a new entrant, maybe from China, looking to get a North American foothold, but that it will take hard work and big money to lure a new plant to the province.

“The manufacturers have to be incentivized somehow to want to put that flag there.”

ALSO READ: No crude, but still rude: BC Hydro survey reveals conflict at electric vehicle charging stations

China-based Johnson Electric committed in late 2017 to invest more than $350 million in new equipment and capacity in the province focused largely on electric vehicle components, while the Ontario government agreed to chip in $24.1 million. BYD Co. Ltd. also committed to building electric buses in Ontario at the time, though financial details weren’t disclosed.

U.S. investments, meanwhile, will be hard to come by in the near term, said Kristin Dziczek, vice president of industry, labour and economics at the Center for Automotive Research.

“Right now, investments of any type, in the political environment we’re in, any investment outside the U.S. draws scrutiny.”

But while Canada’s auto industry hasn’t seen the major investments made in the U.S., like GM’s announcement of a US$2.3-billion battery plant in Ohio and billions of dollars to build an all-new electric pickup truck in Detroit, it should still see increases in electric production, said Dziczek.

Most companies will be ramping up from very low levels, while Toyota is expected to have the most production with a 77 per cent increase to 107,000 units by 2023.

The company says hybrid models of its RAV4 and Lexus RX already account for more than 20 per cent of its Canadian production, and that it will also start producing the Lexus NX hybrid in 2022.

“We’ve made significant investments in our facilities to enable them to produce electrified vehicles,” said Stephanie Pollard, vice president of Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada, in a statement.

Green Jobs Oshawa, the group Leah is a part of, would like to see the Oshawa plant also get into the electric race, with an aim to produce about 150,000 electric vehicles over five years focusing on postal trucks and other federal vehicles.

While great in theory, the chances of it happening are slim to none, said Unifor president Jerry Dias.

“That would be wonderful, but it’s not going to happen.”

Instead, Dias is focused on making sure GM maintains the integrity of the plant and invests in the test track it has promised, so the plant is ready for potential future production that could be lured there by the advanced infrastructure in the area.

“If GM is going to have a test track to use to test out their autonomous and electric vehicles, that will be designed and engineered in Markham, the natural next step is, why wouldn’t you build a car?”

GM has committed $170 million to transform the plant into an auto parts manufacturing operation and build the track, but it hasn’t made any commitments to future vehicle production. It has focused lately more on its technology research and development in the region.

“In times of change, it’s best to focus on the future,” said Scott Bell, president and managing director of GM Canada in a letter on the plant’s closure.

Electric vehicle commitments are just one of the many issues Dias will take into contract negotiations next year with the Detroit three automakers. Electric vehicles remain a sliver of the market, and could still be only about five per cent of sales in 2025, according to Unifor’s estimates.

But it will certainly be an increasingly pressing issue going forward. Management consultant AlixPartners estimates automakers globally will be spending US$255 billion in research, design and capital expenditures and roll out some 207 electric models by 2022.

“It’s inevitable, it’s happening, and so you want to be on the forefront of that, you don’t want to be lagging behind,” said Dias.

He said government will need to work with industry to lure new commitments for the next generation of automobile assembly to keep a bedrock of Ontario’s economy healthy.

“All of the auto companies are talking about the inevitable transformation, and I agree with them, there will be an inevitable transformation. The question becomes, what’s Canada’s role in the transformation.”

Ian Bickis, The Canadian Press


Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Sandy Carmichael is a Goldstream Gazette 2021 Local Hero as Seniors’ Champion. (Don Denton/Black Press Media)
Worker bee returns to volunteer: Sandy Carmichael a fixture at Langford Royal Canadian Legion

Sandy Carmichael is the 2021 recipient of the Seniors’ Champion Award

The It’s Critical campaign has raised $5.89 million towards its $7 million goal to expand critical care capacity at Victoria’s Royal Jubilee Hospital. (Black Press Media file photo)
Critical care improvements make the list with Greater Victoria shoppers

Save-On-Foods pledges $300,000 to Victoria Hospitals Foundation’s It’s Critical campaign

West Shore Parks and Recreation facilities face a challenging future in terms of funding, due to reduced operations throughout the pandemic. (Black Press Media file photo)
West Shore Parks and Recreation faces challenging future

West Shore Parks and Recreation Society submits 2021 budget request to owner municipalities

Approximately 100 people gathered in Centennial Square Saturday afternoon to listen to speakers decry COVID-19 restrictions. (Jane Skrypnek/News Staff)
PHOTOS: Victoria residents protest masks, COVID-19 restrictions

Approximately 100 people gathered in Centennial Square Saturday afternoon

BC Ferries experienced heavy traffic on Feb. 27 following cancellations the day before due to strong winds and adverse weather. (Black Press Media file photo)
BC Ferries sailings fill up quickly after cancellations on Friday due to high winds

Waits expected on Swartz Bay-Tsawwassen route, Horseshoe Bay-Departure Bay route

Abbotsford’s Kris Collins turned to TikTok out of boredom when the provincial COVID-19 lockdown began in March 2020. She now has over 23 million followers on the video app. Photo: Submitted
Internet famous: Abbotsford’s Kris Collins is a TikTok comedy queen

Collins has found surprise stardom alone with a phone

A Vancouver restaurant owner was found guilty of violating B.C.’s Human Rights Code by discriminating against customers on the basis of their race. (Pixabay)
Vancouver restaurant owner ordered to pay $4,000 to customers after racist remark

Referring to patrons as ‘you Arabs’ constitutes discrimination under B.C.’s Human Rights Code, ruling deems

Nanaimo children’s author and illustrator Lindsay Ford’s latest book is ‘Science Girl.’ (Photo courtesy Lindsay Ford)
B.C. children’s writer encourages girls to pursue the sciences in new book

Lindsay Ford is holding a virtual launch for latest book, ‘Science Girl’

Pig races at the 145th annual Chilliwack Fair on Aug. 12, 2017. Monday, March 1, 2021 is Pig Day. (Jenna Hauck/ Chilliwack Progress file)
Unofficial holidays: Here’s what people are celebrating for the week of Feb. 28 to March 6

Pig Day, Canadian Bacon Day and Grammar Day are all coming up this week

Staff from the Marine Mammal Rescue Centre, passersby, RCMP and Nanaimo Fire Rescue carried a sick 300-kilogram steller sea lion up the steep bluff at Invermere Beach in north Nanaimo in an attempt to save the animal’s life Thursday. (Photo courtesy Marine Mammal Rescue Centre)
300-kilogram sea lion muscled up from B.C. beach in rescue attempt

Animal dies despite efforts of Nanaimo marine mammal rescue team, emergency personnel and bystanders

Doctors and counsellors warn of an increase in panic attacks, anxiety, depression and suicide ideas between ages 10 to 14, in Campbell River. ( Black Press file photo)
Extended pandemic feeding the anxieties of B.C.’s youth

Parents not sure what to do, urged to reach out for help

Gina Adams as she works on her latest piece titled ‘Undying Love’. (Submitted photo)
‘Toothless’ the kitty inspires B.C. wood carver to break out the chainsaw

Inspired by plight of a toothless cat, Gina Adams offers proceeds from her artwork to help animals

B.C. Finance Minister Selina Robinson presents bill to delay B.C.’s budget as late as April 30, and allow further spending before that, B.C. legislature, Dec. 8, 2020. (Hansard TV)
How big is B.C.’s COVID-19 deficit? We’ll find out April 20

More borrowing expected as pandemic enters second year

The first of 11 Dash 8 Q400 aircraft's have arrived in Abbotsford. Conair Group Inc. will soon transform them into firefighting airtankers. (Submitted)
Abbotsford’s Conair begins airtanker transformation

Aerial firefighting company creating Q400AT airtanker in advance of local forest fire season

Most Read