Sudden rise in interest rates could cause home prices to drop 30 per cent: CMHC

Federal housing agency sounds warning as it releases stress test findings on Canadian mortgages

Worries are growing that a sharp interest rate rise could deflate home prices.

Worries are growing that a sharp interest rate rise could deflate home prices.

TORONTO – A sudden rise in interest rates could cause house prices to plummet on average 30 per cent nationally, according to stress tests performed by Canada’s federal housing agency released Thursday.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said it studied the impact of two interest rate hikes – a one percentage point increase over one quarter this year, followed by a 1.4 percentage point rise during one quarter next year.

CMHC said its mortgage insurance business would incur $1.13 billion in losses in such an event but that it could withstand the hit. A spokesman for the agency stressed that the scenario is an “extreme case” and would be unprecedented.

Interest rates have started to go up this week as a sell-off in the U.S. bond market has driven bond yields higher, making it more expensive for banks to access capital.

Two of Canada’s biggest banks – TD Bank (TSX:TD) and Royal Bank (TSX:RY) – have hiked their fixed mortgage rates, anywhere from 0.05 percentage points to 0.4 percentage points.

There are concerns that as interest rates rise, some Canadian homeowners could encounter difficulty making their mortgage payments and face the risk of default.

“Households are so leveraged right now and house prices are at such incredibly high levels relative to household incomes,” said David Madani, senior Canada economist at Capital Economics.

“Even a moderate doubling in interest rates – which sounds like a lot but we’re talking about maybe 200 basis points (two percentage points) – could potentially pop the housing bubble.”

Interest rates have been trending lower for more than a decade, but that has not always been the case.

Fuelled by inflation, mortgage rates soared in the 1980s and posted five-year fixed rates topping more than 20 per cent in 1981.

According to data kept by the Bank of Canada, the posted five-year rate for a conventional mortgage at the big Canadian banks climbed from 13.25 per cent in January 1980 to 16.75 per cent in April 1980, an increase of 3.5 percentage points.

However, Canada started using an inflation target to guide monetary policy in 1991 and since then inflation has been mostly tamed and interest rates have fallen.

The stress test conducted by CMHC was one of several extreme scenarios it examined over a time period from 2017-2021. They included a U.S.-style housing correction, a high-magnitude earthquake that destroys critical infrastructure in a major Canadian city and a drop in oil prices where they fall to US$20 per barrel next year and remain between US$20-30 for another four years.

Another scenario that the agency tested involved a “severe and prolonged” economic depression, which CMHC said would see house prices drop 25 per cent and unemployment rise to 13.5 per cent. The insurer said it would incur $3.12 billion in losses in that case.

CMHC said its capital holdings were sufficient to withstand all scenarios it tested. None of the scenarios should be considered a prediction or forecast, the agency added.

“Stress testing involves searching out extreme scenarios that have a very remote chance of happening and planning for them,” Romy Bowers, CMHC’s chief risk officer, said in a statement.

“Rigorous stress testing is an essential part of our risk management program and allows CMHC to evaluate its capital levels against these scenarios.

– Alexandra Posadzki, The Canadian Press

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

A member of the Belmont Secondary School in Langford has tested positive for COVID-19, the Sooke School District announced Thursday afternoon. (Black Press Media File Photo)
Positive COVID-19 case identified at Belmont Secondary School in Langford

Other school members could’ve been exposed on April 20

Starting in June, Government Street will be closed to most vehicles between Humboldt and View streets. A section of Government Street was transformed into a pedestrian-priority walkway in the wake of COVID-19. (Black Press Media file photo)
Victoria plans 10-hour closures of Government Street come June

City’s business relief plan extended, Government St. from Humboldt to View closed noon to 10 p.m.

As part of the province’s strategy to combat the opioid overdose crisis, take-home naloxone kits have been distributed throughout the province. (Courtesy of Gaëlle Nicolussi)
Vancouver Island could be at its worst point of overdose crises yet: medical health officer

Island Health issued overdose advisories for Victoria, various communities in the last two weeks

While Buccaneer Days public events are cancelled again, such as the annual parade, a home and business decorating contest will allow the spirit of the event to live on. (Facebook)
Esquimalt Buccaneer Days COVID-19 cannon fodder again

Annual celebration cancelled a second time, decorating contest full steam ahead

Police are looking for this suspect after a man was stabbed on Pandora Avenue Tuesday night. (Photo courtesy of Victoria Police Department)
Police seek suspect in Victoria stabbing

The stabbing took place in the 900-block of Pandora Avenue, just before 8:30 p.m. on Tuesday

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and United States President Joe Biden smile as they say farewell following a virtual joint statement in Ottawa, Tuesday, February 23, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
Trudeau pledges to cut emissions by 40% to 45% by 2030, short of U.S. goal

Trudeau announced target during a virtual climate summit convened by U.S. President Joe Biden

(Black Press Media file photo)
POLL: Have rising prices caused you to give up hope of buying a home?

Do you have a spare 50 grand or so kicking around (have… Continue reading

Anyone with information on any of these individuals is asked to call 1-800-222-TIPS (8477) or visit the website victoriacrimestoppers.ca for more information.
Greater Victoria Crime Stoppers wanted list for the week of April 20

Greater Victoria Crime Stoppers is seeking the public’s help in locating the… Continue reading

MLA Shirley Bond, right, answers questions during a press conference at Legislature in Victoria, B.C., on February 19, 2019. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito
Former B.C. gaming minister says she wasn’t told directly about dirty cash flowing to casinos

Shirley Bond said Thursday civil forfeiture, gang violence and gambling addiction were also major concerns in 2011

RCMP Constable Etsell speaks to tourists leaving the area at a police roadblock on Westside Road south of Fintry, B.C., Thursday, July 23, 2009. THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Yvonne Berg
B.C. police say they take ‘exception’ to conducting roadblocks limiting travel

Asking the police to enforce roadblocks exposes officers to further risk and possible COVID-19 infections, says federation president Brian Sauve

The conservation service confirmed they do not relocate cougars from settled areas but that euthanasia is not necessarily the fate for an animal in the Fanny Bay area. The hope is that the animal will move on to wild areas. (File photo)
Woman hopes cat-stalking Fanny Bay cougar can avoid euthanization

Conservation officers do not relocate the animals from Vancouver Island

Tofino residents expressed frustration over a recent post by Long Beach Lodge owner Tim Hackett that falsely claimed all residents have been vaccinated. (Westerly file photo)
Resort owner apologizes for suggesting Tofino is safe to travel to

Long Beach Lodge owner Tim Hackett apologizes to community and visitors

BC Hydro released a survey Thursday, April 22. It found that many British Columbians are unintentionally contributing to climate change with their yard maintenance choices. (Pixabay)
Spend a lot of time doing yard work? It might be contributing to climate change

Recent BC Hydro survey finds 60% of homeowners still use gas-powered lawnmowers and yard equipment

Journal de Montreal is seen in Montreal, on Thursday, April 22, 2021. The daily newspaper uses a file picture of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dressed in traditional Indian clothing during his trip to India to illustrate a story on the Indian variant of the coronavirus. Paul Chiasson/The Canadian Press
Montreal newspaper blasted for front-page photo of Trudeau in India

Trudeau is wearing traditional Indian clothes and holding his hands together in prayer beside a caption that reads, ‘The Indian variant has arrived’

Most Read