Jagmeet Singh touts affordable housing during a campaign stop at the Coast Bastion Hotel in Nanaimo on Sept. 26, 2019. (Nicholas Pescod/NEWS BULLETIN)

Jagmeet Singh touts affordable housing during a campaign stop at the Coast Bastion Hotel in Nanaimo on Sept. 26, 2019. (Nicholas Pescod/NEWS BULLETIN)

Spotlight on B.C.: Setting the agenda on key election issues

Black Press Media presents a four-part series looking into how B.C. will affect the national outcome

By Bruce Cameron

Former federal Conservative leader and PM-for-a-minute Kim Campbell once said, “an election is no time to discuss serious issues.”

That quote came to epitomize her ill-fated 1993 campaign, which saw a 156-seat Conservative majority reduced to just two seats, neither of which was her riding of Vancouver Centre.

Campbell claimed her words had been taken out of context, and what she meant to say was that 43 days is not enough time to resolve complex issues. The clarification fell flat, but that episode highlights the tricky task facing all party leaders in 2019: articulating their visions on the campaign trail.

As American Democratic Party pollster Stanley Greenberg recently said: “Those who figure out what the fight is actually about are able to set the agenda and motivate voters to get involved and choose a side.”

So what is Canada’s 2019 election campaign all about? Are voters motivated by pocketbook issues, such as taxes and the economy, or will they focus on character and look to elect their preferred prime minister? My bet is that other more intangible issues, like dealing with climate change, will eventually decide the outcome.

Leadership

At the core of most campaigns is the image and name of the leader, and polling suggests the Conservatives are struggling.

Even during the Liberals’ worst days of the campaign so far, polling showed the Liberal vote dropped by a few percentage points, but the preference for Justin Trudeau over Andrew Scheer remained.

Leadership-based elections, such as the 2015 vote that focused on defeating Harper, revolve around assessments of “character.” But do the Trudeau blackface incidents speak to Canadians about his alleged hypocrisy, as the Conservative attack ads claim? Not according to the polling data.

Motivation

The Conservative Party of Canada could not have hoped for a more embarrassing revelation, because it ties into a central part of their election strategy: to keep the Liberal turnout low and motivate their own base. If the CPC gets out the same level of vote as in 2015, but Liberal turnout is lower by about 10 per cent, Scheer wins.

Yet three out of four Canadians surveyed recently by Abacus Data said they were content with Trudeau’s apology or didn’t care about the issue and wanted to move on. Of the one-quarter who felt it was unacceptable, most of them were already Conservative supporters.

So a majority of Canadians want to “turn the page” and move on to other issues.

Party platforms

This election offers a clear choice in platforms and policies, but only two parties can realistically form government: the Conservatives and the Liberals.

The CPC has stressed the importance of personal advancement, while the Liberals have framed the vote as a collective choice about which direction we want to go.

Is the 2019 election about you getting ahead?

Or is it about choosing a direction for the country?

The economy

So far, the message about Canadians needing to get ahead is resonating in some parts of the country where the economy has struggled, like Alberta. But in B.C., where the provincial economy has been quite strong, that message gets a mixed reaction.

Yes, cost of living is a concern for everyone, especially in a fast-growing economy with very high housing costs, but those concerns have declined over the past few years in B.C.

So in this crucial battleground, the outcome on Oct. 21 will likely be decided less on economic issues and more on a host of other intangibles.

It’s the environment, not the economy or Trudeau

In most polling conducted so far, the environment sits at the top of voter concerns, in some cases mentioned by twice as many Canadians as economic concerns.

Yet many analysts, to their detriment, try to explain away the high number of unprompted mentions of environmental concerns as an aberration.

In B.C., the environment is intimately tied with the economy and never far from the top of any conversation among voters. Its importance partially explains the early rise of Green Party support here at the federal and provincial levels.

Thus, once the page is turned on the blackface incident, all parties will have to face the challenge of crafting a credible environmental plan.

Climate strikes, school walkouts and the instant celebrity of advocates like Swedish 16-year-old activist Greta Thunberg suggest we may have reached a tipping point in public consciousness. If so, how each party intends to tackle climate change could in fact decide who governs Canada.

If an election is actually a time to discuss serious issues, how much more serious can you get than the future of the planet?

Bruce Cameron, Black Press Media’s polling analyst, is the founder of Return On Insight. Follow him on Twitter @roitweets

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

This property, at 1980 Fairfield Place, is adjoined to Gonzales Hill Park and is the centre of community opposition and a B.C. Supreme Court case as owners are looking to build a single-family home on the lot. Jake Romphf/News Staff
Home construction near Victoria’s Gonzales Hill Park spurs legal battle

Gonzales Hill Preservation Society worried about impacts to the park’s wildlife, rare fauna, views

Construction of the next phase of Dockside Green, which will include three condo buildings, is now underway, Bosa Developments announced April 9. (Bosa Developments)
Construction underway, homes for sale at Victoria’s Dockside Green

Bosa Developments took over the site from Vancity in 2017

Best of the City 2019 (Sergej Krivenko photo)
Voting opens for Victoria’s annual Best of the City

Annual awards mark 27th year in Greater Victoria

A man with a history of sexual offences was arrested after he followed and aggressively tried to talk to two young woman on the weekend. Black Press File Photo
Man convicted of sexual offences arrested after teens followed in Victoria

Women hid in a Quadra Village convenience store as man aggressively tried to get in

Traffic heading south on Highway 17 and looking to turn left onto Beacon Avenue wait for the light to turn Tuesday morning. A report finds the intersection is experiencing “failing levels of service” for certain movements during the morning peak hours as well as the afternoon peak hours. (Wolf Depner/News Staff)
Major Sidney intersection already deficient predicted to get worse

New report also finds area’s pedestrian and cycling infrastructure in need of improvement

(Black Press Media file photo)
POLL: Do you have a plan in place in the event of a tsunami?

Tsunamis have claimed the lives of more than 250,000 people between 1998… Continue reading

Anyone with information on any of these individuals is asked to call 1-800-222-TIPS (8477) or visit the website victoriacrimestoppers.ca for more information.
Greater Victoria Crime Stoppers wanted list for the week of April 13

Greater Victoria Crime Stoppers is seeking the public’s help in locating the… Continue reading

Vancouver police say eight people were arrested Wednesday after anti-pipeline protesters blocked off both the entrances and exits to two buildings in the downtown core. (Instagram/Qtcatspictureclub)
8 people arrested after anti-pipeline protestors chain themselves to Vancouver buildings

Cst. Tania Visintin said demonstrators caused ‘a serious safety hazard’ downtown for hours Wednesday

Jamie Coutts recorded a man following her around downtown Vancouver for a half-hour on Wednesday, March 18. (Instagram screenshot/Iammjammbamm)
Man charged in alleged high-profile Vancouver stalking case that went viral online

Man faces five other charges including criminal harassment and assault with a weapon

A sea lion swims past the window of an empty viewing area Vancouver Aquarium is pictured Thursday, September 10, 2020. The Vancouver Aquarium has had to close its doors to the public due to the lack of visitors during the COVID-19 pandemic. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward
U.S.-based theme park company buys Vancouver Aquarium

Aquarium had to shut its doors in September due to COVID pandemic

Legendary broadcaster Bernie Pascall is among in the Class of 2021 to be inducted into the Canadian Football Hall of Fame. (PQB News file photo)
Island broadcasting legend Bernie Pascall named to Canadian Football Hall of Fame

Pascall named by Football Reporters of Canada as inductee in the 2021 class in the media category

A man wears a protective face covering to help prevent the spread of COVID-19 as he walks past the emergency entrance of Vancouver General Hospital in Vancouver, B.C., Friday, April 9, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward
COVID-19 spike in B.C. could overwhelm B.C. hospitals: modelling group

There are 397 people are in hospital due to the virus, surpassing a previous high of 374 seen in December

Most Read