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BC NDP maintaining a sizeable lead in latest polls

Conservative Party of BC strengthens its grip on second place in two recent polls
New figures given provincial New Democrats the lead in two new polls and in fundraising. (Black Press Media file photo)

New figures show the B.C. NDP in the lead among both would-be voters and donors.

A Research Co. poll of decided voters gives Premier David Eby’s New Democrats a double-digit lead over the second-placed Conservative Party of BC with 46 per cent share versus 26 per cent. Research Co. conducted the poll online between Jan. 22 to Jan. 24.

The New Democrats lost two points while provincial Conservatives gained six points when compared to Research’s poll from September 2023.

BC United ranks third in the most recent poll with 17 per cent — down three per cent from September — while the BC Greens ranked fourth with 11 per cent, down one per cent from September.

The Research Co. poll broadly matches the findings of a poll by 338Canada. It shows New Democrats with 46 per cent, provincial Conservatives with 22 per cent, BC United with 18 per cent and BC Greens with 11 per cent.

Both polls confirm trend lines that started to appear in the second half of 2023 as the provincial Conservatives first caught up to BC United, then replaced that party for second place, with the NDP and BC Greens maintaining their respective first and fourth-place standings.

The Research Co poll also suggests that the NDP’s change in leadership from former premier John Horgan to Eby has not hurt the party at all as it remains on track to not only maintain, but expand its majority government.

RELATED: BC Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau shifting to Victoria-area riding

“More than four-in-five voters who supported the John Horgan-led BC NDP in 2020 (83 per cent) are staying with the party under a new leader,”Mario Canseco, President of Research Co, said. “Only 41 per cent of voters who backed the BC Liberals under Andrew Wilkinson would cast a ballot for BC United.”

Eby remains the most popular party leader with an approval rating of 53 per cent (plus one per cent), ahead of Sonia Furstenau of the BC Greens (34 per cent, minus two per cent ), John Rustad of the provincial Conservatives (32 per cent, plus seven per cent) and BC United Leader Kevin Falcon (31 per cent, plus two per cent).

In terms of geography, New Democrats maintain their lead on Vancouver Island (52 per cent) and in Metro Vancouver (47 per cent). New Democrats also lead the provincial Conservatives in the Southern Interior (plus 10 per cent) and the Fraser Valley (plus seven per cent). Provincial Conservatives have a small edge in Northern B.C. as they lead the NDP by one per cent.

These new polling numbers appear against the backdrop of new fundraising figures that show New Democrats raised almost $1.9 million between Oct. 1 to Dec. 31, followed by BC United with almost $1.18 million. BC Greens raised just above $535,000 while Conservatives raised just under $300,000.

The last possible date for the next provincial election under B.C.’s fixed-election-date law is Oct. 19, 2024.


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Wolf Depner

About the Author: Wolf Depner

I joined the national team with Black Press Media in 2023 from the Peninsula News Review, where I had reported on Vancouver Island's Saanich Peninsula since 2019.
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